Weekly Outlook – 6th August 2012

August 6, 2012

General Commentary

Last week’s currency trading review

The EUR/USD was very volatile last week falling heavily on Thursday when no specific plan was announced by the ECB at their meeting but then staging a dramatic reversal on Friday to end at new highs. Spanish and Italian bond yields are falling as the market prices in action by the ECB that may include outright buying of the troubled nations bonds. Euro crosses which have all been in strong downtrends are enjoying gains and are beginning to unwind with the EUR/GBP and EUR/AUD in particular big movers.

The USD/JPY rallied on Friday the strong US NonFarm Figures and EUR/JPY short covering both adding to the Yen selling. The BOJ meet this week and will want the gains to continue as the exporter nation’s economy struggles to gain traction. The other Central bank in play this week is the RBA from Australia expected to hold rates at 3.5% and release a neutral statement in a careful watch and wait approach to further monetary policy moves.

Currency Movement last week

EUR/USD was up +0.57% closing at 1.2385, after opening the week at 1.2315.

USD/JPY was down -0.01% closing at 78.45, after opening at 78.46.

GBP/USD was down -0.74% closing at 1.5634 after opening at 1.5750.

AUD/USD was up +0.77% closing at 1.0559 after opening at 1.0478.

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