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Daily Outlook - Trader Talk
Currency Trading Summary Friday 19-Jan-2018
Written by Russell Sandiford / Dealer
What Happened on Thursday > Top 3?
• USD soft ahead of Debt Ceiling vote
• Sterling & Euro lift again amid USD weakness, maintaining bullish momentum
• AUD hold onto 80c as China growth stats still supportive
• (EUR) Euro looks firm, regaining 1.2250
• (OIL) Oil backs off slightly from $64 after Crude Inventories Data
• (BTC) Bitcoin and other Cryptos recover after the 2-day selloff
Data & Event Risk Today?
• (GBP) UK Retail Sales Data – 8.30 pm Sydney
• (USD) FOMC Voting member Quarles – 4.15 am Sydney
The dollar index came under selling pressure with a soft opening on the next day after one-day regain, trying to cross the 90 level again. The main trend is still downward as Euro continues its rally.
Mixed in economic data from US didn’t help the greenback, still showing strong economic growth yet missing the markets expectations of housing start and the Philly Fed Manufacturing index.
USD JPY: 111.05
The pair declined back during the London session after the surge price reversal, as the mixed US data reported.
However, the pattern still shows a sign of bulls’ recovery as following the Japan’s November industrial output was revised lower to 0.5%, although not confirming the trend is changing to up.
EUR USD: 1.2240
EURUSD gone back up in an effort of a retracement of the sudden Wednesday’s bearish from the fresh year high, testing to push up the top by crossing 1.2320 level.
All eyes on the ECB, waiting for Draghi’s statement on next Thursday regarding implementation of QE and would expect spike in the rate.
Possible not much significance changes in the trend on the following days, as cautiousness arise ahead of the meeting.
GBP USD: 1.3895
The GBPUSD’s march continues as the dollar index came to slow down as the dollar index weakened and fuelled further by ahead of UK’s retails sales data on Friday.
The upward momentum is strong, back on the path towards 1.40. Possibly reaching to push the fresh year high by breaking the 1.3940 level.
AUD USD: 0.8000
The pair past through the psychological level at 0.8000 which is the fresh yearly high, and still no sign of bearish.
As continuing the strong data in China with a recorded almost 7% growth in 2017, followed by strengthen consumption and external trade.
It would indicate a strong upward momentum if the price remains at above the mentioned level.
NZD USD: 0.7320
The Kiwi goes up during early New York session back on track to Wednesday’s high at 0.7330 level, as due to missed US data reported.
Further fuelled by up demand of AUD and NZD, following a strong reported China data.
USD CAD: 1.2420
The looming situation in U.S. is reinforce ty the potential government shutdown over the impasse that Democrat and GOP have reached if the funding bill cannot be passed today. (19/01)
The U.S. selling pressure takes over CAD rally, projecting the tapering in USDCAD lower as 1.2402.
It's getting close to the time for caution as selling pressure in U.S. dollar continued.
Index still is at its all-time highs, however it steadily going up yet slow as US500 Index’s momentum looking strong and not showing any sign of change in trend.
XAUUSD is trading in tight range, and turns on it risk-on mode after a pretty positive GDP data from China.
Late Asia session got the metal drops back to as low as $1324. The disappointing prospect of a showdown by U.S. government is surprisingly not providing momentum for the gold market.
Market might take the showdown deal easily since the estimation of a high volatility situation is not expected.
OIL (WTI): $63.65
Oil rally back as a pre-APAC reaction, and API report on Tuesday showed 2.58 million more barrels than forecasted.
Consolidation on Oil market is likely to be continued in the short-term.
Weaker stocking of Oil and modest demand in the future can leads to pivot point signalling a deeper pullback.
BITCOIN (BTC): $11,136
Bitcoin rallies back 1.68% in last 24 hours at around $11,147, the Korean Justice Department softening tone and continuing working on a ban bill sending doubts to crypto coins.
And further sanctions made by China seems to only be stirring more enthusiastic in crypto investing.
It is a tumultuous week for bitcoin, and exhibits double digits volatility almost consecutive 6 weeks, seems to gain its momentum in near term.
Macro Themes in Play
• USD Still broadly soft, Debt Ceiling deadline in focus
• Sterling holding UP firmly, aiming at 1.4000
• Bitcoin recovers, AUD holds 80c as China growth data still solid
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