Weekly Outlook – 12th June 2012

June 12, 2012

General Commentary

Last week’s currency trading review

The EUR/USD led the relief rally last week as European officials got ready to act on the worsening Spanish Debt crisis. Over the weekend they did just that with an announcement that Spanish banks would receive up to 100bn in loans to help restore confidence. The EUR/USD opened very strong above 1.2600 on Monday morning but has been under selling pressure since then as the details of the loan are worked out.

The USD/JPY was helped last week after Fed Chief Ben Bernanke was very non-committal about QE3 for the US at next week’s FOMC meeting. Bernanke questioned the effectiveness of more QE but did stat that various tools were still available to help stimulate the faltering US recovery. Y80 is still a significant resistance level on the topside and may cap the recent rally.

The AUD/USD enjoyed a return to favor as the RBA cut rates to stimulate the local economy and China cut rates to help the Asian power house remain at strong growth levels. The AUD/USD found strong resistance at 1.0000 and once again on Monday morning this level has contained the market. Stock market movements going forward will dictate the next direction for the risk/commodity currency.

Currency Movement last week

EUR/USD was up +0.69% closing at 1.2513, after opening the week at 1.2427.

USD/JPY was up +1.81% closing at 79.46, after opening at 78.02.

GBP/USD was up +0.73% closing at 1.5463 after opening at 1.5350.

AUD/USD was up +2.16% closing at 0.9909 after opening at 0.9695.

This Week’s Trading Preview

Trend of the Week:-


12/06/2012 04:38

1 week Trend: (=)

1 month Trend: (=)

EUR/USD intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 1.2575

Our preference: Short positions below 1.2575 with targets @ 1.244 & 1.2405 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.2575 look for further upside with 1.261 & 1.2665 as targets.

Comment: as long as the resistance at 1.2575 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.244 remains high.

Key levels
1.2488 last

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