Easy-Forex Weekly Outlook

September 8, 2014

General Commentary

AUD/USD plumbed a 6mth low of 0.9043 during the European am after extending south from 0.9109 (Asia high). The AUD has been hit hard by the unwinding of carry trades this week. Bids are tipped pre-0.9000 (option barrier level).

EUR/USD A tight 1.2914 to 1.2933 range played out through Asia and early Europe with a smattering of fund interest just providing some liquidity for the broader market to play. Macro-funds were buyers at the lows and helped underpin a run to the high before intraday adjusting leaned on the EUR. News that Russia had halted its troop withdrawal knocked the EUR back to 1.2917 where consolidation set in. EZ data had little impact despite output numbers beating the consensus call. There appears some appetite for an run higher to the 1.2980-90 area, which would play into the hands of the larger offers. Note, in excess of 4.5-yards of expiries today, 1.2850, 1.2900 and 1.30 the larger strikes.

USD/JPY Demand falters ahead of 107.50 barrier. 106.97-107.39 today’s range. 107.41 is daily trend line resistance and also worth noting that daily RSI looks over bought now above 80. However, buyers still lurking in the 106.80-50 zones to limit setbacks. 106.64 is yesterdays low. EUR/JPY got to 138.52 yesterday and marginally extends to 138.73 in Asia today. Resistance at 138.80 (38.2% of 143.79-135.73). Support comes in at the 137.91 daily cloud top.

GBP/USD elicited support pre-1.6215 (Thurs NY low) in early European trade after extending south from 1.6277 (early Asia high, after 5pm ET release of YouGov poll suggesting 52% of Scots want to stay in UK). A near half-cent climb has ensued as the market awaits another an ICM/Guardian poll on Scotland. EUR/GBP is trading within strike of a large 0.7950 option expiry for today’s NY cut, with 0.7945-0.7968 marking the European am range

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