Monday 20-03-2017 Outlook

March 21, 2017


Welcome to the easyMarkets weekly outlook starting this Monday 20 March. We’ll be looking at the week’s key economic events on the financial calendar covering Monday to Thursday. Be sure to catch up with our Friday morning report that looks back at how the events played out and with a look at Friday’s events. This is a very busy week packed full of economic indicators across most major economies.

Event: UK Consumer Price Index (YoY, February)

Date: Tuesday 21 March 2017 at 09:30 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/GBP, GBP/USD

Trending hashtags: #gbp, #cpi, #inflation

The Consumer Price Index is a measure of inflation and last month’s release of January’s figure showed the fastest growth since June 2014. This was attributed to a rise in the price of oil combined with a weaker pound. January showed a CPI of 1.8% compared to the same time last year, a little lower than what analysts were forecasting at 1.9%. The Bank of England is expecting a 2.7% rise in inflation over the next year as Brexit is likely to come with higher import prices. The CPI for February due this Tuesday is also expected to rise 2.1%.

Event: NZ Interest Rate Decision

Date: Wednesday 22 March 2017 at 20:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/NZD, AUD/NZD, NZD/USD

Trending hashtags: #nzd, #interestrate

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Last month the central bank retained its official cash rate at 1.75%, which is one of the highest in the developed economies. With commodities on the rise, a more positive global economy and an increase in domestic business activity, some analysts may expect a rise in rates. However, global uncertainties remain including on-going surplus capacity in the global markets which may keep the bank’s fingers off the ‘go’ button and instead decide to maintain rates at the current rate.

Event: US Initial Jobless Claims

Date: Thursday 23 March 2017 at 12:30 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Trending hashtags: #usd, #jobs, #unemployment

Fewer Americans filed for unemployment assistance in the previous reading than analysts were forecasting. For the week ended 11 March, 241,000 people filed for new claims, 4,000 less than what was expected. Overall, the US jobs market continues to show signs of improvement with unemployment also at a low 4.7% and a positive new jobs gain for last month at 235,000. Wages are also improving with February’s figure rising 2.8%. This week’s Initial Jobless Claims is expected to also show a slight improvement at 240,000.

Event: US Fed Chair’s Speaks

Date: Thursday 23 March 2017 at 13:45 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Trending hashtags: #usd, #yellen, #fed

Federal Reserve’s Chair, Janet Yellen, is speaking in Washington on Thursday. Following last week’s interest rate hike by a quarter of a percent, she gave hawkish comments on the US economy. The board are confident that the economy is in a much more stable position to handle any shocks and that future conditions are looking good. Analysts are expecting further positivity from the Fed’s Chair, though how the US dollar will react is anyone’s guess following last week’s surprising drops after the positive rate announcement.

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