easyMarkets – Hot Topic – Monthly Outlook (NOV / DEC)

December 1, 2016

November was an exciting month for the markets with the unexpected win of Donald Trump to become the 45th president of the USA. Markets had been pricing in a Clinton win, so on 8 November as the numbers started to come in, there were some massive moves.

Asian stocks dove sharply as did the UK’s footsie and EU equities. US stocks saw some of their biggest losses in years. The biggest loser on the day was the Mexican peso that saw a staggering and history-making 13.3% decline against the US dollar. But that is all in the past and markets rebalanced pretty quickly with the US dollar going from strength to strength.

While there were many big trades we could look at from November, we’re going to look at gold. It’s had a fairly lack-lustre year but with a potential uncertainty coming in the new world order, it may see a renaissance. Many certainly thought so on the night when they snapped it up sending it to an almost 5% high to $1,337.4 an ounce.
If you were trading the gold (XAU/USD) on election night here’s what you could have made.

If you had bought XAU/USD on 09 November at 01:00 GMT with an investment (or amount to risk) of $500 when the price was at $1,268.77 an ounce – and closed the deal at 05:00 GMT when the price peaked at $1,337.33, you might have made $5,403.66 assuming that you have been leveraged with 1:200. Note that this example does not take into account spread and the use of leverage means that you not only magnify the potential to profit but also to lose.

Missed out on that deal? Don’t worry, with the expectation of the Fed potentially raising interest rates in December there may be plenty of opportunities to take advantage of before the year is out.

Thursday 1 Dec
US ISM Manufacturing PMI, 15:00 GMT

Friday 2 Dec
EU Producer Price Index, 10:00 GMT
US NFP, 13:30 GMT

Monday 5 Dec
German Markit Services PMI, 08:15 GMT

Tuesday 6 Dec
Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision, 03:30 GMT
EU GDP (YoY), 10:00 GMT

Wednesday 7 Dec
UK GDP estimate, 15:00 GMT
Canada BOC Interest Rate Decision, 15:00 GMT

Thursday 8 Dec
EU ECB Interest Rate Decision, 12:45 GMT

Wednesday 14 Dec
US Retail Sales, 13:30 GMT
US Fed Interest Rate Decision, 19:00 GMT
US FOMC Press Conference, 19:30 GMT

Thursday 15 Dec
Australia Employment Data, 00:30 GMT
Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision, 08:30
UK BOE Interest Rate Decision, 12:00 GMT

Monday 19 Dec
Japan BOJ Interest Rate Decision, 03:00 GMT

Thursday 22 Dec
US GDP, 13:30 GMT

Friday 23 Dec
US Durable Goods Orders, 13:30 GMT

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