USD Trading Outlook (26-06-2015)

Global stock markets dropped on Thursday and Friday morning as Greece and its creditors failed to reach an agreement, while EUR and USD traded within a very tight range. 

Last minute talks between Brussels and Greece will take place on Saturday as the country has to repay the IMF 1.6 billion euros. 

EURUSD traded within 1.1235 -1.1153 range, down 1.2% this week. USDJPY traded within 124.38 mad 122.56 for the week indicating an indecisiveness as to future direction. 

Commodities such as GOLD and Crude oil also felt Greece’s jitters, as US Crude dropped to 59.65 a barrel after falling almost 1% the day before. 

AUDUSD has some support above 0.7700/0.7680. Resistance is at 0.7795/0.7800 and 0.7850. The near-term outlook for the pair looks neutral. Possibility of a rate cut further this year, is holding the AUD upside limited for now. 

Data wise today it’s an almost empty calendar with US Michigan consumer sentiment the only highlight for the day. 

Overall, not much risk is taken as investors are sitting ducks until Greek Drama reaches the final act. IF that is possible. 

Trading Quote of the day: “The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.”- J. Nehru

Green lines are resistance, Red lines are support

EURUSD

Pivot: 1.123

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.123 with targets @ 1.115 & 1.108 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.123 look for further upside with 1.1285 & 1.135 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is capped by a declining trend line.

GBPUSD

Pivot: 1.571

Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.571 with targets @ 1.58 & 1.583 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.571 look for further downside with 1.5665 & 1.563 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias. The pair has broken above the upper boundary of a bearish channel.

AUDUSD

Pivot: 0.775

Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.775 with targets @ 0.7695 & 0.768 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.775 look for further upside with 0.778 & 0.7795 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

USDJPY

Pivot: 123.65

Likely scenario: Short positions below 123.65 with targets @ 122.95 & 122.55 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 123.65 look for further upside with 123.9 & 124.35 as targets.

Comment: As long as 123.65 is resistance, expect a return to 122.95.

USDCAD

Pivot: 1.237

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.237 with targets @ 1.231 & 1.227 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.237 look for further upside with 1.24 & 1.2425 as targets.

Comment: As long as 1.237 is resistance, expect a return to 1.231.

USDCHF

Pivot: 0.932

Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.932 with targets @ 0.9415 & 0.947 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 0.932 look for further downside with 0.928 & 0.925 as targets.

Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

GOLD

Pivot: 1180

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1180 with targets @ 1169 & 1162.5 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1180 look for further upside with 1185 & 1188 as targets.

Comment: As long as 1180 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

OIL

Pivot: 60.45

Likely scenario: Short positions below 60.45 with targets @ 59.3 & 58.98 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 60.45 look for further upside with 60.9 & 61.55 as targets.

Comment: As long as 60.45 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

DAX

Pivot: 11275

Likely scenario: Long positions above 11275 with targets @ 11640 & 11800 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 11275 look for further downside with 11040 & 10880 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is negative but supported by a strong support.

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