EUR Trading Outlook (18-08-2014)

EUR/USD Those traders long EUR/USD and hoping for a short squeeze into the weekend were foiled again. Europe lifted the pair off hourly support near 1.3360 and had it just above 1.3390 into NY’s open. The lift continued in the early hours of NY trade and the pair hit a high of 1.3412 which sat just below the 200-WMA and 21-DMA both of which sit near 1.3417. The headlines of increased tension out of Ukraine & Russia put a safe have bid into the USD & JPY. EUR/USD dived towards 1.3375 while EUR/JPY slipped below 136.80. The headline effect wore off quickly though and risk made a comeback. EUR/JPY rallied towards 137.15 and EUR/USD lifted towards 1.3400 and sat just below that level late in the day. The pair remains in its consolidation phase but may break out of it next week. The US gives us July CPI, minutes of the last Fed meeting and the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Thursday brings EZ PMIs for August. Soft PMI results may see EUR/USD break lower form the consolidation and take out 1.3295/1.3325 support. If broken bears have their hopes up for a quick run near 1.3100.