EUR Trading Outlook (27-06-2014)

EUR/USD opened NYC 1.3613, -15 pips vs last night’s close, O/N range 1.3611/42. O/N price action saw EUR/GBP selling at the fixes & after a shift in UK mortgage rules. Positioning was the primary factor that drove EUR/USD to global session lows. Spec buyers long from the bounce after US GDP yesterday owned them between 1.3626-51and needed another soft US data set. US PCE/PI was pretty much a Goldilocks number, close to f/c – strong points (personal income +0.4%) offset by soft real PCE (-0.1%) The Y/Y prices +1.8% were the highest since Oct ’12 and sparked long EUR/USD liquidation. Soft EZ stocks added to their woes. Profit-taking in thin liquidity drove prices back up, US traders’ eyes on the US/Germany WC game, EUR/USD last 1.3609, US range 1.3576/1.3618.