EUR Trading Outlook (23-06-2014)

EUR/USD Offers from ACBs and spec into 1.3650 were once again too much to overcome. Europe pushed EUR/USD from its 1.3634 high(aided by EUR/GBP’s slide to 0.7969) and it sat near 1.3695 into NY’s open. Pressure remained on the pair in early NY as US yields and the USD were rising. Further pressure was added after Canada’s CPI & retail sales data were above f/c. EUR/CAD had been heavy o/n but after the data it plunged from near 1.4710 towards 1.4585/90. This dragged EUR/USD down and it hit a low of 1.3565. A pause in the USD’s ascent and some give back for US bond yield gains allowed for a bounce. The pair lifted through NY’s afternoon and sat just above 1.3590 late in the day. Consolidation remains the dominant theme for EUR/USD. The phase is taking place near recent lows and should eventually resolve in favor of bears. A break of 1.3500 and the Feb low should open the door a 1.3300 test. Bulls need to retake ground above 1.3675/80 to alleviate the immediate downward pressure.