USD Trading Outlook (29-06-2015)

As earlier written, today marks the beginning of a tumultuous week in global financial markets. At the open, an abyss was seen in most EUR crosses as well as equity indexes with DAX opening with a 5% GAP. European stocks plummeted the most in eight months at the growing possibility of a Grexit. China stocks are also facing a steep sell off as stocks crashed the most in 19 years, and reopened limit down. China’s tech-heavy high beta ‘Nasdaq’ – is down 5-6% today, 19% in 3 days, and 33% from highs in early June. In the meantime, Central Banks around the world are taking measures to protect their financial systems, with Swiss national Bank announcing that it intervened in the currency markets which explains the huge spike in EURCHF earlier today which also is to “blame” for the EURUSD rebound from its lows today. 

So anyone expecting to see the end of euro today had to think again, as the combination of profit taking, hopes of a last minute Greek deal and the SNB intervening helped limit the selloff. The reality is that market participants have been bracing themselves for quite a long time for this event so after the weekend’s action and this morning’s reaction we are entering a ‘NOW WHAT’ phase. This can last for at least a week or even longer as market participants will be hanging from the lips of EU and Greek officials. 

Add into this the US non-farm payrolls report due to be released on Thursday (not Friday due to 4th of July) then we have in our hands a Molotov cocktail of volatility. 

So what does all this mean for you and how to trade it? Stick to longer term time frames and views and try to discard all the noise as some moves will make absolutely no sense. Set your stop losses and take profits in order to limit the risk and lock in any profits. We guarantee not only the rates, but offer this feature as extra safety for traders. 

Similarly, while other brokers are widening spreads, as is typical in volatile markets, easy-forex is standing by its fixed spreads policy ensuring traders always know the cost of their trading. Combine that with guaranteed stops and easy-forex traders get the best of all worlds; avoiding that nightmare of trading – slippage, and ensuring their rates are filled as they set them.

Quote of the hour: “you shouldn’t commit suicide because you fear death” EU’s Juncker to Greek officials 

Trading Quote of the Day: “Austerity is not part of the European treaties; democracy and the principle of popular sovereignty are.” Alexis Tsipras 

Green lines are resistance, Red lines are support

EURUSD

Pivot: 1.117

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.117 with targets @ 1.1055 & 1.1 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.117 look for further upside with 1.123 & 1.1285 as targets.

Comment: The RSI has struck against a major resistance around 70% and is reversing down. This morning opening gap at 1.116 is expected to offer strong resistance.

GBPUSD

Pivot: 1.5765

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.5765 with targets @ 1.566 & 1.5625 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.5765 look for further upside with 1.58 & 1.583 as targets.

Comment: The RSI has failed to break above its bearish trendline.

AUDUSD

Pivot: 0.768

Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.768 with targets @ 0.7585 & 0.755 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.768 look for further upside with 0.772 & 0.775 as targets.

Comment: The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 0.768.

USDJPY

Pivot: 123.3

Likely scenario: Short positions below 123.3 with targets @ 122.1 & 121.7 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 123.3 look for further upside with 124 & 124.35 as targets.

Comment: As long as 123.3 is resistance, likely decline to 122.1.

USDCAD

Pivot: 1.235

Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.235 with targets @ 1.24 & 1.242 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.235 look for further downside with 1.23 & 1.227 as targets.

Comment: The break above 1.235 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 1.24.

USDCHF

Pivot: 0.9315

Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.9315 with targets @ 0.943 & 0.947 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 0.9315 look for further downside with 0.928 & 0.925 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

GOLD

Pivot: 1175

Likely scenario: Long positions above 1175 with targets @ 1185 & 1188 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1175 look for further downside with 1169 & 1162.5 as targets.

Comment: A support base at 1175 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

OIL

Pivot: 58.9

Likely scenario: Short positions below 58.9 with targets @ 57.6 & 56.85 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 58.9 look for further upside with 59.55 & 60 as targets.

Comment: The break below 58.9 is a negative signal that has opened a path to 57.6.

DAX

Pivot: 10800

Likely scenario: Long positions above 10800 with targets @ 11285 & 11380 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 10800 look for further downside with 10640 & 10435 as targets. 

Comment: The RSI has just landed on a support around 30% and is reversing up.

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