Daily Outlook

AUDUSD has been quiet but stable hovering around the 0.7600 level. The dip of the Aussie in the Asia session Wednesday mainly came from the disappointment of Australian construction data, which was a key factor weighing on the pair and restricted any rally with the other majors. In absence of any major market news, traders are awaiting for Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

Longer term, the RBA’s easing bias combined with the Fed’s tightening bias should push the AUD lower. While the recent trend shows an attractive AAA rated AUD benefitted from its higher interest yield compared to currencies like JPY, EUR and GBP. A subdued US FED may push the AUD higher towards 0.8000.

Oil extended the bearish momentum on Wednesday and traded below the key $47 a barrel level mainly driven by a rise in crude oil inventories. According to the EIA report, crude oil inventories unexpectedly showed 2.5 million barrel build, compared to an expected 0.5 million barrels. The next catalyst will be the Jackson Hole Symposium, driving the USD movement. The main support for the oil price has been talk of an OPEC agreement to freeze production at its next meeting in September.

UD/USD 8/25/2016 4:39 AM  Trend daily chart (=)  Trend weekly chart (=) AUD/USD Intraday: key resistance at 0.7635. Pivot: 0.7635 Our preference: short positions below 0.7635 with targets @ 0.7585 & 0.7560 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 0.7635 look for further upside with 0.7655 & 0.7680 as targets. Comment: the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 0.7635. Supports and resistances: 0.7680 *** 0.7655 *** 0.7635 *** 0.7627 Last 0.7585 *** 0.7560 *** 0.7540 **

Ticker : AUD  Add to my portfolio

Best regards,

Ivy